Local Advertising to Rebound As America Reopens, BIA Predicts

BIA Advisory Services has revised its 2021 forecasts for U.S. local advertising revenue to $142.4 billion, up $4.8 billion from its November 2020 estimates.

BIA's projection is split between traditional and digital media but shows that the divide is narrowing, with traditional advertising only 8 percentage points ahead of digital platforms like mobile, online, over-the-top, email, and traditional media's online ventures.

"There's an acceleration in the market that couldn't be accounted for last fall," said Mark Fratrik, senior vice president and chief economist at BIA Advisory Services, in the report. "The economy is growing, and we're observing money being spent to reach audiences through various media."

Fratrik points to OTT as growing 16 percent this year, surpassing the trajectory of mobile as more consumers take advantage of streaming services on their TV screens.

Fratrik expects ocal television advertising to dip to $16.2 billion in 2021 but bounce up to $19.3 billion in 2022, with $1.5 billion and $1.7 billion, respectfully, coming from digital platforms. Local radio advertising will rebound somewhat to $11.7 billion in 2021 and $12.3 billion in 2022, with $.94 billion and $1.04 billion, respectfully, coming from digital platforms, he predicts.

The revised forecast also sees a 5.6 percent increase in overall compound annual growth in U.S. spending in local ad markets and expects the amount to reach $157.1 billion in 2022 and $162.1 billion in 2023. While the digital media share will first leapfrog to 51 percent over traditional media by 2023, according to the report.